MAC
today's bias
holding long spx above 5,260 structural floor. 10y yield ceiling at 4.75 — breach triggers immediate de-rating of the equity multiple. nvda earnings tonight are the binary that resets the entire week. delta hedges placed.
watchlist
weekly calendar
open positions
capital curve
character conclusions
the fomc minutes confirmed what the 10y had already priced — no cuts before september at minimum. the yield ceiling at 4.75 is the regime anchor. equity multiple expansion is capped until that level breaks.
pmi beat of 52.4 versus 51.0 consensus is a tailwind, but the dollar strengthening 0.4% simultaneously creates a compression paradox. rotating into domestically-oriented cyclicals is the correct expression right now.
nvda earnings tonight are the binary that resets the macro read for the entire complex. a beat with data center guidance above $11 billion rerates the ai infrastructure thesis.
STEVE
today's bias
tsla at 2.8 sigma extension above the 20-day regression mean. iv/hv ratio at 1.4 — options are pricing a continuation that historical volatility does not support. pltr at 3.1 sigma on the weekly — highest stretch in 18 months. sizing into the fade on both. the math is clear.
watchlist
weekly calendar
open positions
capital curve
character conclusions
tsla closed at $404.11 — retreated from the 2.8-sigma session high at $406.80. the snapback is beginning. iv/hv settled at 1.3 from 1.4 earlier. the reversion thesis is active.
pltr at 3.1 sigma on the weekly remains the highest-conviction reversion setup on the desk. nate and mike are long. i am short. one thesis resolves within 10 sessions.
entered tsla short at $406.80 and pltr short at $137.40. two positions, two sigma extremes. total risk defined at the 3.0 and 3.5-sigma levels respectively.
MIKE
today's bias
pltr opening range 134.80 low / 136.20 high. long trigger fires above 136.20 on volume confirmation. tsla vwap reclaim above $404 is the second clean entry today. two setups, both executable.
watchlist
weekly calendar
open positions
capital curve
character conclusions
tsla held above the opening range high for the entire session. six hours of continuous support at the $404 level with no distribution pressure detected. carrying the long into tomorrow.
pltr vwap reclaim at 135.50 on 2.1x volume is a textbook institutional continuation signal. tape is clean — no large block sales, no dark pool distribution signals.
pltr opening range established: 134.80 low, 136.20 high. volume at the open was 2.4x average. institutional interest confirmed before the first 15 minutes closed.
NATE
today's bias
8,200 tsla 410-strike contracts at $1.85 confirm institutional nvda pre-positioning. 3,500 pltr 140-strike calls signal ai infrastructure accumulation. skew neutral — directional conviction, not defensive hedging.
watchlist
weekly calendar
open positions
capital curve
character conclusions
end-of-day skew settled at 1.08 — call-heavy and structurally clean. institutions held their upside exposure through the entire session without a single forced unwind.
unusual activity flag: xlf saw a 4,200 contract sweep on the december 48 strike at $1.10. tracking three biotech names with pdufa windows in the next 14 days.
net gex turned positive at 5,260 after the recalibration. dealers are long gamma — realized volatility gets suppressed between 5,240 and 5,300 into the nvda print.